Will House Prices Drop Further? Should You Wait?

Probably, but slowly. Australian home values have fallen for six months in a row, and Cotality's October 2026 report expects "a gradual drift lower" rather than a crash. That makes waiting look sensible. The catch is that waiting is not free: if rates rise again, what you can borrow falls too, and the bottom is only visible afterwards.

Updated 27 October 2026. Figures are from Cotality's Home Value Index to 30 September 2026 and the Reserve Bank's 29 September 2026 decision, listed at the foot of this article. Property data moves quickly, so check the sources before relying on any number here.

Will house prices drop further?

Most forecasters expect so. Cotality's October 2026 report says the most likely outcome is "a gradual drift lower in housing values rather than a material downturn".^[1] Its research director, Tim Lawless, told the ABC on 1 October 2026 that a 10 to 15 per cent national fall is "probably a fairly reasonable estimate", with values falling into 2027.^[3]

National values fell 1.1% in September, the sixth monthly fall in a row, and are 5.2% below the March 2026 peak.^[1] Cotality's report does not publish a Gold Coast figure on its own. The closest official read is its regional Queensland index, which has fallen less than the capitals but is now falling too.^[1]

The same ABC report quoted AMP chief economist Shane Oliver, whose worst case is a fall of as much as 20% if the Middle East conflict drags on, oil reaches $150 a barrel and people lose jobs.^[3] These are national calls. For where the corridor sits suburb by suburb, see the Gold Coast house prices page, and for the wider outlook, the Gold Coast property market forecast.

Is it a buyer's market right now?

Across the capitals, yes. Cotality says buyers "generally have more choice, reduced urgency, and greater scope to negotiate", while vendors "are having to become more realistic about their price expectations".^[1]

Capital city stock for sale was 23.1% higher than a year earlier at the end of September, even though the flow of new listings was 9.2% lower.^[1] Stock is building because fewer homes are selling: Cotality estimates national sales over the three months to September were 19.1% lower than a year earlier.^[1] Lawless put the catch plainly: many buyers "don't have the confidence or financial capacity to buy at the moment".^[1]

Which means the buyers who are finance-ready face less competition than they have for years. Cotality publishes no separate Gold Coast stock figure, so treat the capital city numbers as the direction of travel, not a local measurement.

How long are homes taking to sell?

Longer than a year ago. Capital city homes took a median of 39 days to sell in Cotality's October 2026 report, against 23 days a year earlier.^[1] Its monthly report gives no Gold Coast figure, so ask the selling agent how long a home has been on the market. A long answer usually means more room to negotiate.

Cotality also notes that auction clearance rates "have held below average".^[1] Which means a property passed in at auction is now a common event rather than a red flag, and often the start of the real negotiation.

What happens if interest rates rise again while I wait?

You can borrow less. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026 and said it would keep "increasing the cash rate target further if needed".^[2] Cotality's report flags "the possibility of another in November".^[1]

Cotality warned that higher rates are "narrowing the pool of buyers able to qualify for a mortgage and reducing the amount they can afford to pay".^[1] A lower price only helps if your loan still covers it. If you are waiting, get your pre-approval reassessed after each rate decision so you know what you can actually spend.

What this actually means if you are buying here

The honest position is that nobody knows where the bottom is, including us. What you can do is stop treating "wait" as a free option, because it is not.

• Waiting may be rewarded on price. Regional Queensland is 2.8% below its May 2026 peak and forecasters expect further falls.^[1][3]
• Waiting has cost money until now. Even after the recent falls, regional Queensland values are 6.3% higher than a year ago.^[1]
• Your borrowing capacity moves too. If rates rise again, what you can afford falls, and a cheaper house you cannot borrow against is not a win.
• The bottom is only visible afterwards. By the time the data confirms it, the buyers who were waiting alongside you are all bidding at once.
• A slow market is a negotiating market. More stock and longer selling times give a ready buyer leverage that did not exist a year ago.^[1]

The more useful question

Instead of asking when to buy, ask whether the specific property is right and whether you can hold it comfortably if rates go up again rather than down.

An A-grade property in a tightly held pocket behaves very differently in a downturn to a C-grade one bought at the same time. Scarcity is what protects value when the wider market softens, and the strip between the ocean and the hinterland here has very little of anything left to build on.

If you are finance-ready and you find the right property, the timing question matters less than most buyers think. If you are not finance-ready, no amount of market timing will help you. If you are weighing this up anywhere between Broadbeach and Cabarita, tell me what you are looking for and I will tell you what is actually available, including the homes you will not find on a portal.