Gold Coast Property Market Forecast: November 2026 Update

The Gold Coast market has turned. After holding up through winter while Sydney and Melbourne fell, values across regional Queensland, which includes the Gold Coast, have now slipped for several months in a row. The falls so far are smaller than in Brisbane and the other capitals, and the outlook depends mostly on interest rates, which rose again on 3 November.

November 2026 update: figures current as at 8 November 2026 and listed at the foot of this article. The mid-2026 section further down is unchanged from 7 August 2026 and is kept for comparison.

What is the Gold Coast property market forecast?

Nobody publishes an official Gold Coast forecast, and the national calls point to further falls into 2027. In early November 2026 Domain's Nicola Powell said a 10% national drop is "quite possible", and Cotality's Gerard Burg said buyers will hold back until the Reserve Bank signals a change on rates, which he does not expect before the latter half of 2027.^[10]

Burg also expects the eventual recovery to be "more subdued than we've seen in previous episodes".^[10] A month earlier, Cotality's Tim Lawless put a 10 to 15 per cent national fall as "probably a fairly reasonable estimate", and AMP's Shane Oliver gave a worst case of about 20% if the Middle East conflict drags on, oil reaches $150 a barrel and job losses rise.^[7] All of these are national calls. Treat any single number, including the bullish Gold Coast forecasts published earlier in the year, as one view rather than a base case.

Are Gold Coast property prices falling?

Yes, but more slowly than Brisbane. Cotality's regional Queensland index, which covers the Gold Coast, fell 0.9% in October 2026 and 2.7% over three months, and sits 4.0% below its May 2026 peak. Brisbane fell 2.0% in October alone. Regional NSW, which takes in the Tweed, fell 0.7%.^[8]

Nationally, October was the seventh monthly fall in a row, equal to about $63,400 off the value of the median Australian dwelling since the March peak.^[8] Cotality's monthly report does not publish a Gold Coast figure on its own, so the regional Queensland index is the closest official read. For suburb-level medians across the corridor, see the Gold Coast house prices page.

Why are property prices falling in 2026?

Mainly interest rates. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November 2026, after four rises earlier in the year. Higher repayments cut what buyers can borrow, so fewer homes sell: Cotality estimates national sales over the three months to October were 23% lower than a year earlier.^[9][8]

Rates are not the only drag. Cotality points to affordability limits, low confidence, cost-of-living pressure and the investor tax changes in the Federal Budget, with new investor loan commitments down 8.6% in the June quarter.^[8] The Reserve Bank's own statement says "housing prices have fallen significantly" and that falls in prices and turnover are expected to weigh on spending.^[9]

Will interest rates go up again?

Possibly, but the Reserve Bank has not said so. Its board raised the cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November 2026 by a six to three vote, with three members wanting to hold at 4.60%. It now expects inflation to stay above 3% for the coming year and says it will be "attentive to the data". The next decision is due on 8 December 2026.^[9][11]

The statement says inflation is not expected to reach the top of the 2 to 3 per cent target range until late 2027, about three quarters later than previously forecast.^[9] Both economists quoted by the ABC after the October figures expect any talk of rate cuts to wait until the latter part of 2027.^[10] If you are borrowing, ask your lender what your repayments would be at a rate a quarter or half a point higher than today's.

Is the Gold Coast property market going to crash?

There is no official Gold Coast forecast, but the national fall is fast. Cotality says capital city values dropped 8.1% in seven months, the quickest pace in forty years. Regional Queensland, which includes the Gold Coast, is down a smaller 4.0% from its May 2026 peak and is still 46.6% higher than five years ago.^[8]

For comparison, the 2017 to 2019 downturn, the largest peak-to-trough fall on Cotality's record, took capital city values down 8.2%, and Burg expects this one to "easily" pass that mark.^[8][10] Brisbane is falling faster than the coast, down 8.3% from its peak, and Cotality says virtually every suburb in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide lost value over the past three months.^[8] Whether it feels like a crash depends on when you bought: a regional Queensland owner from five years ago is still well ahead, while one who bought at the May peak is behind.

Should I wait for Gold Coast prices to drop before I buy?

Only if you can wait without cost. Forecasters expect further falls, but nobody can tell you where the bottom is or how far the corridor you want will move. A slower market does give buyers more choice and more room to negotiate, which Cotality describes as a buyer's market that buyers are "noticeably absent" from.

In Cotality's November report, Tim Lawless said "buyers have a lot more stock to choose from, they have more leverage and there isn't the same urgency to buy as there was a year ago".^[8] The median time on market was 39 days, the longest since August 2020, vendor discounting was 4.7%, the largest since May 2019, and capital city listings were the highest for this time of year since 2019.^[8] If you are weighing this up, the guide to waiting for prices to drop sets out the trade-off, and you can tell me what you are looking for between Broadbeach and Cabarita and I will tell you what is actually available, including the homes you will not find on a portal.

Mid-2026: the picture as at 7 August 2026

Moving into the second half of 2026, the Gold Coast and Tweed Coast were doing something different to the rest of the country. National headlines described a housing downturn, and for most of Australia that was accurate. The premium coastal corridor from Broadbeach to Cabarita Beach was not following it at the time.

Figures in this section current as at 7 August 2026.

A genuine two-speed market

Nationally, dwelling values fell 0.4% in June 2026, the third consecutive monthly fall.^[4] Sydney fell 3.2% across the June quarter and Melbourne 2.6%.^[4]

The Gold Coast median dwelling value was $1.182 million in July 2026 and rose 0.05% for the month, while the national figure fell 0.3%.^[5] Over the year it is up in the order of 10 to 12%, although the pace has slowed markedly from the boom conditions of the past few years.^[5]

Within the Gold Coast the split continues. Softness is concentrated in mortgage-belt suburbs and among buyers whose borrowing capacity has been squeezed.^[2] The premium coastal markets, particularly above $3 million, have stayed resilient, largely because those buyers are transacting with cash or substantial equity and are not especially sensitive to the cash rate.^[2]

Units are doing the heavy lifting

With house prices in the premium suburbs beyond many buyers, demand has moved decisively toward apartments. The development pipeline has followed, shifting away from small investor stock toward larger two and three bedroom apartments aimed at owner-occupiers and downsizers.^[1]

If you are deciding between a new apartment and an established one, here is how off-the-plan and completed apartments compare.

The Gold Coast median unit price reached $956,000 in late 2025, overtaking Sydney for the first time.^[1] Vacancy rates sit near 1.2%, with gross rental yields averaging around 5.3% for units.^[1]

The Tweed Coast: supply is the whole story

Across the border, Kingscliff, Casuarina and Cabarita Beach continue to perform, underpinned by a shortage of new housing rather than by speculative demand.

The Tweed Coast median house price sits at $1.7 million with units at $1.09 million.^[3] House price growth has moderated to a sustainable 1.8% annually while unit prices have risen 18.2%.^[3] There is very little new residential development scheduled across 2026 and 2027, which is the main reason prices here have held.^[3]

One note on reading these. The $1.182 million Gold Coast figure is an all-dwellings median, which blends houses and units. House-only medians for the city are quoted higher, around $1.3 million, depending on the provider and the period. They are different measures rather than contradictory ones, and it is worth checking which one you are being shown.

Outlook, with the caveats it deserves

Forecasters have expected dwelling price growth between 7% and 11% for the Gold Coast across 2026.^[1] Those forecasts were made before the national correction broadened, so treat them as one view rather than a base case.

The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August after raising it 75 basis points across the first half of the year, and has explicitly kept the option of raising further if inflation does not behave.^[6] That is the main risk to any Gold Coast forecast.

The structural factors have not changed. There is very little developable land left between the ocean and the hinterland, migration into South East Queensland continues, and infrastructure spending ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympics is ramping up.^[1]

What that adds up to is not "prices cannot fall here". It is that the supply side of this particular market is tighter than most, which is why it has so far behaved differently to Sydney and Melbourne. If you are waiting for a significant correction in the premium corridor specifically, the last twelve months have not delivered one.